Things is getting mighty nuts in Iowa, folks. H/T to Mike’s Roundup at C&L, we begin with the fact that the Southern Political Report is predicting an Edwards win, using their formula of reintegrating the votes of second-tier candidate supporters based on their second choices:
Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be: Edwards: 41% Clinton: 34% Obama: 25%
It is worth mentioning before we go farther that this is based on poll numbers which are already disputed before we even get to the second-choice vote. That second choice vote could get interesting too, because while SPR reports that Edwards has the second vote race tied up nicely, Dennis Kucinich has thrown his support behind Barack Obama. I’m not sure how much good the actual numbers would be for Obama’s campaign, but the vocal, early and as far as we know, unsolicited support might help him quite a bit when it comes to deal-making time.
That leaves the supporters of Dodd, Richardson and Biden up for grabs. If any one of those candidates decides to encourage their supporters to go elsewhere, things could get interesting. I’d predict Dodd and Biden would encourage the Hillary vote, but I’m soft on the Dodd prediction. Richardson I think might surprise people and go with Barack, just based on nothing more than a gut feeling I have which may actually be more related to the Burger King I regrettably ate for lunch.
And finally, there is Kos. He put his support behind Barack Obama early, but now regrets it because of a few comments made in the course of the election. Amusingly, he says that “Not being blinded by candidate worship, it’s easier to sniff out the bullshit.” Mm-hmm. I personally think some people on the Left are getting a little too sensitive in a primary. But this line is a gem:
And call me crazy, but that’s not a trait I generally appreciate in Democrats, no matter how much it might set the punditocracy’s hearts a flutter.
Uh, hello douchebag? You own Daily Kos. You kind of are the punditocracy.
Gotta be a bitch to find yourself part of the machine you used to rebel against.
