If you’re looking for predictions from me (I can’t imagine why), sorry to disappoint. This post is about a much more conventional type of forecasting: the weather.
It’s a well-known fact that voter turnout often suffers when the weather sucks. Does that seem an awfully shallow reason not to vote? Well, perhaps. But the facts are the facts, and it is also a fact that Republicans tend to fair better in depressed turn outs. I’ve not heard a good explanation of why that is, but my theory has always revolved around cranky old guys. I’m still fleshing it out, I’ll get back to you.
But if we take it as a reasonably reliable theory that bad weather means low Democratic turnout, it might be worth it to examine the long-term forecast for the various battleground states and see how this eventually translates into Democratic losses and victories. Sound good? Let’s play.
Ohio
The weather looks positively balmy for the coming week throughout the state. From Canton to Cleveland to Dayton and Akron, looks like the weather will be between 65 and 70 and sunny all day long.
Florida
The weather here looks more intemperate, though mildly so, with rain throughout the state and temperatures in the low seventies in the northern Jacksonville. Tampa however looks relatively nice at 81 degrees. And don’t you wish you were there?
How ’bout that all important Florida Jewish vote in Miami? Well, unless you have an aversion to partial cloud cover at mid-eighties, you’ll have no meteorological reason not to vote this coming Tuesday. Or at least, so it seems.
Pennsylvania
Neighboring both Ohio and New York state as it does, it’s not surprising that this state is looking at roughly the same beautiful weather as the Empire and Buckeye states.
Nevada
I guess I was surprised to find that the temperature ever falls below a high of 100, but Reno NV looks like good weather to me. Maybe a little cold for those folks, I don’t know.
Arizona
Not really a battleground, except to the extent that John McCain is doing so badly there. It’s going to be 76 and sunny on Tuesday, so if you’re planning on voting in Arizona, bring your parka.
So, based on nothing more than the weather model, I’m going to say Ohio and Pennsylvania are looking good for an Obama win. Florida is – as in all things – on the bubble here. Nevada and Arizona look like losers for Obama, based on what little I know about weather in those states. It just seems cold enough that some may stay home.
Oddly enough, these predictions actually match the national polling data and extrapolations thereof quite well. So, what the hell! It’s Halloween night and I’m laying my marker down on these five races: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio for Obama, the other two to McCain. Let’s see how close I get to the truth using my weather model.
And lord knows, it’s complicated:
“If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations,” Palin told host Chris Plante, “then I don’t know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media.”
Well, gosh darnit. There ya go, ho, ya done it again. The media discussing you is an example of them exercising their right to free speech, not limiting your own. Now, candidates for president suggesting the media should not contradict them, that’s a threat to free speech.
But then, she is a Republican. I think our last Republican President got used to the idea that “Freedom of Speech” had nothing to do with whether or not the president is supposed to listen to the public’s opinion. Let’s not let another president so benighted occupy the White House.
Now that Sarah Palin has announced her intention to run for president at the next available opportunity, it’s worth a pause to consider how, exactly, she’s going to do that. It’s worth considering how other Republicans have made their way to the White House.
It is generally agreed that the Republican base was not happy with John McCain going into the Republican Primaries. Well, who did support him? Crucially in the early primary states, it was the independent voter. Many of those early primaries are held in states where anyone can vote in either primary, Democrat or Republican. Those independents who lean Republican voted for McCain en mass, they’re now leaving him behind, and it’s partially due to McCain’s pick of the unqualified Sarah Palin for the veep role. As I mentioned a couple days ago, John McCain is now ironically doing rallies filled with people who never supported him.
Mike Huckabee found out about losing the independent voter. Mitt Romney learned about losing the independent voter. The independent voter is currently teaching a continuing education class on their role in American politics. The test is four days away. Will this be another educational opportunity lost for Miss Sarah?
John McCain’s latest ad goes all-in on white fear of black welfare mamas. It uses the word “welfare” in relation to Obama no less than three times and then follows up with, “Just as you suspected, Barack Obama is not truthful about taxes.”
So to recap, Barack Obama’s the lyin’, welfare-takin’ baby daddy you always knew hung out in places in the city you’ve never been. No reason to trust that sort of thing, now, is there?
A North Charleston woman voted by absentee ballot as her last act before dying. Yeah, it’s that important to people.
Governors and Mayors of various cities and states across the U.S. are testifying before Congress on the need or lack thereof for a stimulus package to help aid the struggling governments. In particular, our own Governor Patterson is testifying along with Republican governor Sanford of North Carolina. I couldn’t help noticing this:
The New York governor reiterated statements he made Tuesday: that his state faces a $47 billion deficit by 2012 because of overspending, the Wall Street meltdown and the recession. He repeated his projection that 160,000 New Yorkers will lose their jobs as a result of the recent downturn.
. . . .
Rangel and other committee members grilled Sanford for opposing a federal stimulus package, saying that the economy needs a federal cash injection. But Sanford said that states and municipalities should take responsibility for their own financial affairs, making budget cuts instead of relying on federal support.
“Its always easier to spend somebody else’s money,” said Sanford.
Ah, indeed. Someone else’s money. So, here’s a question: how much federal tax money – originating from New York on Wall Street – was used to clean up how many hurricanes in North Carolina? Just asking.
Libby Dole is fighting back with a campaign ad that accuses her opponent of being “Godless.”
Gosh. Nice to know the Republican Party is such a “Big Tent.”
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