John McCain’s sleaze festival is in full swing with two weeks to go.  How’s it working out for him?

Well, according to recent polls, not very well in terms of public opinion.  Voters fairly widely reject the William Ayers line and seem to have grown to hate Sarah Palin.  Too bad for her, because her performance on SNL was actually quite good.  Shucks.

But of course, as the media is pounding the so called Bradly Effect - that theory that says white voters will say what they think you want to hear in polls but will vote differently in the booth - the McCain Campaign’s attempt to smear Obama may just be working in that same quiet way.  There has been a marginal shift in the TPM Tracking number that puts Obama below 50% for the first time in about a week.  Could this be a subtle shift that represents a more fundamental shift just below the water line?  Its hard to know, but it’s troubling.

As I keep saying and as gets repeated year after year, it’s all going to come down to GOTV.  Whomsoever is able to muster the largest support at the polls will probably be the winner.  Irrespective of whom is in the lead and irrespective of the relative sleaziness of the campaigns, it is quite normal to see some tightening of the polls right before an election.  Once the moment becomes real, I think voters tend to pull back from their previous enthusiasm for whomever their candidate is in these last few weeks.

So, Obama supporters, make sure you’re not getting lazy.  Make sure your friends aren’t getting lazy.  College kids who sleep through Election Day could cost us this thing.