I’m not able to confirm this with a Google News search, but voters in Fl are reporting that ballots evidently spilled out of the back of a truck and are just sitting in the road somewhere in Tampa. Again, I cannot confirm this, but I’m being told it was on the news this morning. Also, they’ve been setting up road blocks in some counties to make it difficult to get to the polls.

All of this is uncorroborated, but that’s what’s out there when I’m talking to people. And I mean, come on! This is Florida we’re talking about. That sort of thing wouldn’t happen there. Like Exile said last night, “And Boston isn’t really much of a college town.”

Reader MC reports in with the actual story from TampaBay.com.  This turns out to be not ballots but voter information cards from some campaign or another.  So, while this is an unfortunate breach of voter’s privacy, it appears to be niether a voter suppression tactic nor instigated by anyone in charge of counting votes.

A video blog. Looks crowded at the polling stations, people, get the hell out there and vote your asses off!  Plus, don’t forget about the state ballot initiative to allow veterans to get a few extra points on their civil service applications.  As it stands now, only injured vets get those added points, and only if they’re getting benefits from a specific agency.  The ballot initiative seeks to widen the program to all veterans, which seems only fair.

Keep your browser logged in here today, as I’ll be blogging from the Rochester for Obama headquarters on St. Paul St. during the morning and early afternoon hours.  Then, tonight, check out the live blogging event happening with myself, Rottenchester from the Fighting 29th and Exile on Erickson St. from The Albany Project.  It’s all happening right here on DFE, plus the other two will be on CW-16 and WHAM-13 this evening as well, live blogging the whole time.  Bitchin, eh?

If you’re looking for predictions from me (I can’t imagine why), sorry to disappoint.  This post is about a much more conventional type of forecasting: the weather.

It’s a well-known fact that voter turnout often suffers when the weather sucks.  Does that seem an awfully shallow reason not to vote?  Well, perhaps.  But the facts are the facts, and it is also a fact that Republicans tend to fair better in depressed turn outs.  I’ve not heard a good explanation of why that is, but my theory has always revolved around cranky old guys.  I’m still fleshing it out, I’ll get back to you.

But if we take it as a reasonably reliable theory that bad weather means low Democratic turnout, it might be worth it to examine the long-term forecast for the various battleground states and see how this eventually translates into Democratic losses and victories.  Sound good?  Let’s play.

Ohio

The weather looks positively balmy for the coming week throughout the state.  From Canton to Cleveland to Dayton and Akron, looks like the weather will be between 65 and 70 and sunny all day long.

Florida

The weather here looks more intemperate, though mildly so, with rain throughout the state and temperatures in the low seventies in the northern Jacksonville.  Tampa however looks relatively nice at 81 degrees.  And don’t you wish you were there?

How ’bout that all important Florida Jewish vote in Miami?  Well, unless you have an aversion to partial cloud cover at mid-eighties, you’ll have no meteorological reason not to vote this coming Tuesday.  Or at least, so it seems.

Pennsylvania

Neighboring both Ohio and New York state as it does, it’s not surprising that this state is looking at roughly the same beautiful weather as the Empire and Buckeye states.

Nevada

I guess I was surprised to find that the temperature ever falls below a high of 100, but Reno NV looks like good weather to me.  Maybe a little cold for those folks, I don’t know.

Arizona

Not really a battleground, except to the extent that John McCain is doing so badly there.  It’s going to be 76 and sunny on Tuesday, so if you’re planning on voting in Arizona, bring your parka.

So, based on nothing more than the weather model, I’m going to say Ohio and Pennsylvania are looking good for an Obama win.  Florida is - as in all things - on the bubble here.  Nevada and Arizona look like losers for Obama, based on what little I know about weather in those states.  It just seems cold enough that some may stay home.

Oddly enough, these predictions actually match the national polling data and extrapolations thereof quite well.  So, what the hell!  It’s Halloween night and I’m laying my marker down on these five races: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio for Obama, the other two to McCain.  Let’s see how close I get to the truth using my weather model.

A North Charleston woman voted by absentee ballot as her last act before dying.  Yeah, it’s that important to people.

John McCain’s sleaze festival is in full swing with two weeks to go.  How’s it working out for him?

Well, according to recent polls, not very well in terms of public opinion.  Voters fairly widely reject the William Ayers line and seem to have grown to hate Sarah Palin.  Too bad for her, because her performance on SNL was actually quite good.  Shucks.

But of course, as the media is pounding the so called Bradly Effect - that theory that says white voters will say what they think you want to hear in polls but will vote differently in the booth - the McCain Campaign’s attempt to smear Obama may just be working in that same quiet way.  There has been a marginal shift in the TPM Tracking number that puts Obama below 50% for the first time in about a week.  Could this be a subtle shift that represents a more fundamental shift just below the water line?  Its hard to know, but it’s troubling.

As I keep saying and as gets repeated year after year, it’s all going to come down to GOTV.  Whomsoever is able to muster the largest support at the polls will probably be the winner.  Irrespective of whom is in the lead and irrespective of the relative sleaziness of the campaigns, it is quite normal to see some tightening of the polls right before an election.  Once the moment becomes real, I think voters tend to pull back from their previous enthusiasm for whomever their candidate is in these last few weeks.

So, Obama supporters, make sure you’re not getting lazy.  Make sure your friends aren’t getting lazy.  College kids who sleep through Election Day could cost us this thing.

Early voting has already started in a number of states.  Can you imagine?  You can vote before watching even one debate.  I realize many of us have already made up our minds, but is it really good for our nation’s sense of civics that people are not even bothering to weigh what they see in these debates?

Or are we just fooling ourselves in thinking debates have any real impact anymore?