Monroe County Democrats Announced: The View From Here

The Democrat and Chronicle has the latest announcements from the Democratic camp for the 2007 Monroe County elections. The DFE elections page has been duly updated and reformatted to make it a bit more visually intuitive in terms of the Dem/Repub breakdown. Sadly, I lack originality and stuck to the Blue/Red meme. Hey, you get what you get for free. . .

I’ve not yet had a chance to go over some of the other elections besides the Legislature and Executive positions. When I do, that will also be reflected in the page as soon as practicable.

But how are the Legislature races shaping up so far? I’ll get into that after the fold:

One question I have yet to have answered is that of Carla Palumbo, MC28. The D&C has her listed as running in the City Council Northwest race, which I had not previously heard about. The question is: what happens to her Leg. seat in this case? Currently holding that position is Robert J. Stevenson, a former science teacher. The City Council page is curiously mum as to the political persuasions of its members. I am waiting to hear back about the Leg. position.

There are nine Republican seats and five Democratic seats up for reelection this year in the MC Legislature. Thus far, four Republicans and one Democrat appear to be running unopposed, leaving a sans-analysis, nominal 5-4 spread between competitive Republican and Democratic seats. Of course, if the Dems are forced to give up their seat in MC28, that would completely even out the races. Additionally, there appear to be two open-seat races this year, Majority Leader Bill Smith’s MC10 and Stephanie Polowe Aldersley’s MC16; one Dem and one Republican seat. Both of these seats have Dem and Republican challengers.

Bill Smith is only a two-term legislator, which doesn’t speak to any particular loyalty in the district, one way or the other. But Pittsford trends Democratic outside of County politics. Perhaps, in the absence of any provincial favourites in an open seat, the Dems might be able to pick this one up. Stephanie Polowe Aldersley is also a relative new-comer, but Irondiquoit appears solidly Democratic, so without serious challenge, I think this one could potentially stay in the Dem camp even with a new legislator.

I’d call legs’rs Yolevich, di Raddio and Malta fairly safe bets for the Republicans; on the Dem side, I would say Gamble and Lightfoot have no worries, either. That leaves the two open seats the Barker/Davis (MC11) and the Eckel/Tillet (MC26) races as potentially hot-bed races. Of course, all this assumes that there is no serious challenge in the five above-mentioned districts, that the Dems do not put another candidate in place in another district, and that ‘electoral provinciality’ keeps people voting for their current legislators.

The Dems need 3 seats to swing the Legislature’s majority. Three out of four, in other words. There is also the question of Palumbo, which might mean that they need to pick up four out of five. Mathematically, this is possible, but it’s a stretch. It will be interesting watching this race develop, and I suspect a fair amount will be affected by the Executive race, to the detriment of the Dems, I’m afraid.