SPR Predicts Edwards Win, Kucinich Gets Behind Barack, Kos Pissed.

Things is getting mighty nuts in Iowa, folks. H/T to Mike’s Roundup at C&L, we begin with the fact that the Southern Political Report is predicting an Edwards win, using their formula of reintegrating the votes of second-tier candidate supporters based on their second choices:

Southern Political Report

Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be: Edwards: 41% Clinton: 34% Obama: 25%

It is worth mentioning before we go farther that this is based on poll numbers which are already disputed before we even get to the second-choice vote. That second choice vote could get interesting too, because while SPR reports that Edwards has the second vote race tied up nicely, Dennis Kucinich has thrown his support behind Barack Obama. I’m not sure how much good the actual numbers would be for Obama’s campaign, but the vocal, early and as far as we know, unsolicited support might help him quite a bit when it comes to deal-making time.

That leaves the supporters of Dodd, Richardson and Biden up for grabs. If any one of those candidates decides to encourage their supporters to go elsewhere, things could get interesting. I’d predict Dodd and Biden would encourage the Hillary vote, but I’m soft on the Dodd prediction. Richardson I think might surprise people and go with Barack, just based on nothing more than a gut feeling I have which may actually be more related to the Burger King I regrettably ate for lunch.

And finally, there is Kos. He put his support behind Barack Obama early, but now regrets it because of a few comments made in the course of the election. Amusingly, he says that “Not being blinded by candidate worship, it’s easier to sniff out the bullshit.” Mm-hmm. I personally think some people on the Left are getting a little too sensitive in a primary. But this line is a gem:

Daily Kos: The Obama close

And call me crazy, but that’s not a trait I generally appreciate in Democrats, no matter how much it might set the punditocracy’s hearts a flutter.

Uh, hello douchebag? You own Daily Kos. You kind of are the punditocracy.

Gotta be a bitch to find yourself part of the machine you used to rebel against.

By Tommy Belknap

Owner, developer, editor of DragonFlyEye.Net, Tom Belknap is also a freelance journalist for The 585 lifestyle magazine. He lives in the Rochester area with his wife and son.

3 replies on “SPR Predicts Edwards Win, Kucinich Gets Behind Barack, Kos Pissed.”

It’s pretty obvious that when Kos uses the word punditocracy, he is talking about analysts in the traditional media. He most obviously and certainly is not referring to himself.

As far as people on the left getting too sensitive, I believe that when a Democratic candidate starts saying conservative/Rethuglican talking points, as Obama has done on numerous occasions, that is a very good reason to be upset. Unions and labor in general have every right to be upset at Obama (and indeed, to be sensitive to anything they want to be sensitive to).

It’s pretty obvious he’s not talking about himself. That’s as may be. But has he not several times appeared as a talking head? Does he not opine on the news? He is a pundit as surely as anyone else, probably more so, because of the machine he’s created. What he means is irrelevant.

What, precisely, is so Republican about what Barack Obama has said? If you care about the voice of the people being represented in politics, you cannot in the same breath decry big money’s role in government and in the next accept huge donations, much less paid-for ads. Not from Exxon, not from the SEIU. If you’re for a clean money campaign, then you’re for a clean money campaign. There’s nothing Republican about that.

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