For most experienced political watchers, the whole Chris Lee blow-up might be interesting news fodder, but it ultimately doesn’t really change much. We’ll get a new Republican in the 26th District, but it will be a Republican almost certainly.
Consider the numbers: in 140 years of Dem/Repub rule of American politics, there have been exactly four Democrats that have represented the 29th. (source is ::gasp!:: WikiPedia.org) The district – even after we factor in the dissolution of the 29th – is tailor-made for Republicans, being a trifecta rural, white and relatively wealthy. The Census website illustrates these last points perfectly: The 26th district is 92% white with an average income of $55k, about four thousand dollars a year more than the national average.
A few years back, 13WHAM had a bunch of us bloggers on to discuss the primaries which included Chris Lee in his first run at Congress. While on the set, I actually looked up these very numbers. I would have looked pretty smart if I’d said them, too, which I didn’t.
Well, now I have. I still feel smart, damnit.
For those who insist that Barack Obama should get more aggressive with John McCain, I’d say that the NY26 Democratic race is instructive. As we’ve been discussing here in the studios, Jack Davis and Jon Powers sniping at one another probably allowed Kryzan to win this district.
Well, maybe her process works for the general as well, we can hope. I note that since 1945, NY26 has only had three Democratic Representatives.
We’re in the studios at 13WHAM, streaming live on CW-16. Come check us out.
So far, things are looking surprisingly bad for Jon Powers. With a plurality of districts reportings reporting, Jon is running a distant third behind what initially seemed the dark horse, Alice Kryzan. The general consensus among the bloggers here is that a less-than-stellar performance on the media end. We’re continuing to watch as things develop, but this looks pretty cut and dried.
Great news for Jon Powers (whom I was supposed to meet with last night, which didn’t happen for personal reasons). The embattled NRCC Chairman and scandal-monger Tom Reynolds has announced he will be retiring. That leaves the seat wide open, no incumbency issues for Jon Powers to deal with, in a political environment which has thus far swung in the direction of Democrats.
The Daily Politics – NY Daily News
But the recent NRCC fraud scandal – some of which took place on his watch – has made his re-election effort that much more difficult in an already tough year (increasingly Democratic state, presidential election etc).
Were he to run, this would be the second election-year scandal in a row for Reynolds. The first, of course, was the Mark Foley page debacle.